Football is over, and the NBA All-Star break just wrapped up. It’s time to break down the outlook for each competitive team for the rest of the 2026 season. I’ll be doing a bite-sized blog one team at a time, beginning in the Western Conference with the San Antonio Spurs. I may omit a lot of analysis and opinions in these outlook blogs, in an effort to make them quickly consumable for the on-the-move sports fan.

Western Conference: The premier conference in the NBA, as it has been for the past decade. The top 4 NBA Finals contenders live in the Western Conference: Spurs, Thunder, Nuggets, and Timberwolves (Warriors honorable mention).


San Antonio Spurs

I begin with the Spurs for good reason; they will be your 2026 NBA Champions, and Wembanyama will be your 2026 Finals MVP. Wembanyama is the freak athlete, specimen, and competitor the NBA has been missing in its young stars. His mini crash-out when losing in the All-Star game is just the latest example of his unmatched competitive nature. Nobody cares about the All-Star game, except Wemby. Dare I say it, he carries himself like a young Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan did in the NBA. We’ve seen a few stars showcase flashes of the killer mentality that those two had, but Wembanyama fully embodies that mentality on and off the court.

My Brief Outlook

Although Wemby is the clear superstar of this Spurs team, I don’t want to focus on him. Yes he’s the best player in the league right now, the future face of the NBA, and one of the most unstoppable forces we’ve seen in a long time, but we know that. It’s his young backcourt that really makes me believe in the championship pedigree of this team. Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and De’Aaron Fox (not young) are as good as they come, and complement Wemby perfectly. Stephon Castle has fully morphed into the two-way, high-IQ, physical guard he was drafted to be. His tough style of play feeds perfectly into the culture Wembanyama is trying to build in San Antonio, and it’s clear this duo is here to dominate for years to come. Dylan Harper plays very similarly to Stephon Castle, but with more offensive potential. He’s a 6’6” physical guard, prolific shot creator and maker, and is still only a rookie. His youth is the only way I see the Spurs letting me down in the postseason. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson can light it up on any given night. While only averaging 15ppg and 13.5ppg respectively this season, I believe they can provide an MPJ on the Nuggets, Buddy Hield on the Warriors-type performance in the postseason, going for 35 in a key game when everyone else seems to be struggling. De’Aaron Fox provides much-needed experience on this young team. Still with the ability to score in bunches, run an efficient offense, and provide bursts of energy at any moment. His postseason experience is going to be crucial for his young teammates as they make their run in the playoffs this year. This team also has the likes of Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant. I exclude Harrison Barnes because of his all-time choke job in the 2016 Finals with the Warriors.


Brief Statistical Outlook

  • 111.7 Defensive rating - 3rd in the NBA - This Spurs team plays outstanding team and individual defense. With Wembanyama leading the NBA in blocks, and his ability to guard 1-5 on the court effectively. De’Aaron Fox’s ability to stay in front of the best guards in the league, and Stephon Castle’s ever-improving defensive ability, the Spurs are one of the scariest defensive teams come playoff time. As we know, defense wins championships. 

  • 117.7 Offensive rating - 8th in the NBA - My main concern for this Spurs team is their offense. Maybe they rely too much on the iso-scoring ability of their stars, maybe they haven’t quite figured out the best way to incorporate all of their pieces. With that being said, sitting at 8th in the league is not anything to be ashamed of. When watching this team play at their highest level offensively, they can compete with any offense in the league. 

  • 66.6% - Win percentage in clutch games - This is an impressive achievement for a young team this far into the season. They don’t run complex plays in the clutch, rather they rely on the scoring ability of Wemby, Fox, and Steph Castle to win close games at a high clip.



Main Spurs Obstacle: Oklahoma City Thunder

The obvious counterpoint to this championship prediction is the budding dynasty in Oklahoma City. I do believe the Thunder are the Spurs’ main obstacle en route to a championship, but I have some issues with the Thunder. I am on an island believing that the Thunder grossly overpaid their big 3 this offseason (SGA, Chet, and Jalen Williams). They have proven nothing. They won on a clear injury-riddled, down year in the NBA playoffs last year, and still hardly beat the Indiana Pacers in 7 games in the NBA Finals. No offense to the Pacers, but they aren’t on the level of some of the premier teams in the NBA this year. SGA is the real deal, a true hooper and one of the best all-around scorers the NBA has seen in some time at the guard position… when he’s not foul-baiting. The fact of the matter is, the game is called differently in the playoffs, and I think it hurts SGA’s effectiveness. With that being said, he’s still been great in the playoffs, and he’s not my issue with this team. 

My issue is the other ⅔ of their Big 3, Chet and J-Dub (Jalen Williams). First off, Wemby owns Chet. He has a burning hatred for Chet and doesn’t hide it in the slightest when they face off. Take this video of Wemby’s intensity after Chet misses a free throw as an example, or this video of Wemby bullying Chet in the mid-post. When it comes to the Thunder vs Spurs, this is the point I want to nail home now - Wemby will dominate Chet in a 7-game series, both physically and mentally. The intensity that Chet brings out of Wemby gives the Spurs an advantage, and Chet will be a non-factor when these two teams eventually face off in the playoffs. As for J-Dub, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy this year. First coming off a wrist surgery to begin the season, and now with hamstring issues heading into the All-Star break. Since the start of the 2024-25 season, Oklahoma City has a 33-1 record without Jalen Williams. With J-Dub in the lineup, they've gone 72-21. That's still a *wildly* impressive number, but there's a clear contrast between that and 33-1. Now, I’m not fully dismissing J-Dub as an elite talent, I think he’ll be a 15 to 20ppg player throughout his prime years in the NBA. The point I’m trying to make is the Thunder don’t need him, he’s overhyped, and he certainly isn’t worth the $287 million contract extension they signed him to this offseason.

The Thunder are elite, there’s no doubt about it. I simply refuse to put them on the pedestal that the rest of the media world has. They have much to prove after their run last year, and I think the league will be catching up to them much sooner than everyone anticipates. The Spurs’ 3-0 record vs the Thunder this year when Wemby plays should be a clear indicator of trouble to come for the Thunder in the playoffs.

 

I leave you with this: After beating the Thunder in December of 2025, Wemby said: “I’m just glad to be part of something that’s growing to be so beautiful, pure and ethical basketball.” This was a clear dig at the Thunder’s style of play. Wemby hates this Thunder team and what they stand for. Wemby wants to hoop, and his teammates want to hoop alongside him and share his mentality. I believe the Spurs and the Thunder will be one of the great rivalries for years to come, but the Spurs will always have the upper hand as long as Wemby is around. 

I have one action item for anyone reading this blog - bet the Spurs to win the Finals at +1600 and Wemby to win Finals MVP at +1700. 


More to come on NBA teams’ outlooks in the coming days, who’s got a real shot at a title, what stands in their way, and how they can overcome any obstacles they might endure. 



Stay informed,

Miller